Thursday, November 25, 2010

Ebook Free Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)

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Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)

Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)


Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)


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Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)

Review

"The second edition was reviewed in JASA by Maiti (2004) … we now stand 10 years later with an even more impressive textbook that truly stands for what Bayesian data analysis should be. … this being a third edition begets the question of what is new when compared with the second edition? Quite a lot … this is truly the reference book for a graduate course on Bayesian statistics and not only Bayesian data analysis."―Christian P. Robert, Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 2014, Vol. 109 Praise for the Second Edition… it is simply the best all-around modern book focused on data analysis currently available. … There is enough important additional material here that those with the first edition should seriously consider updating to the new version. … when students or colleagues ask me which book they need to start with in order to take them as far as possible down the road toward analyzing their own data, Gelman et al. has been my answer since 1995. The second edition makes this an even more robust choice.―Lawrence Joseph, Montreal General Hospital and McGill University, Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 23, 2004 I am thoroughly excited to have this book in hand to supplement course material and to offer research collaborators and clients at our consulting lab more sophisticated methods to solve their research problems.―John Grego, University of South Carolina, USA … easily the most comprehensive, scholarly, and thoughtful book on the subject, and I think will do much to promote the use of Bayesian methods―David Blackwell, University of California, Berkeley, USA

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Product details

Series: Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science (Book 106)

Hardcover: 675 pages

Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC; 3 edition (November 1, 2013)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1439840954

ISBN-13: 978-1439840955

Product Dimensions:

7 x 1.4 x 10 inches

Shipping Weight: 2.9 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.2 out of 5 stars

42 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#13,917 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

My impression from people around me was that this book is the canonical textbook for those who want to get into Bayesian statistics. After having read this book from cover to cover, however, I do not think it is a good idea to start learning Bayesian statistics with this book, as it covers very wide range of topics and therefore does not get into much technical depth for most of them. I think this book is ideal for someone like me who has very basic understanding of Bayesian statistics but would like to get some exposure to variety of existing tools in the literature so that when some of them become needed at certain point of my career, I can reopen this book and follow its references to learn enough to actually use them.The stance of this book is very practical, and it is great to get a glimpse of how these grand-master Statisticians approach data analysis. First few chapters regarding the underlying philosophy of Bayesian statistics is also brilliantly written, a must-read for any Statistician.I was somewhat disappointed with changes in the third edition though. The addition of Gaussian Processes and other advanced topics is greatly advertised, but I found these new chapters to be relatively poorly written compared to those in the previous edition; notations are not consistent with previous chapters, and clarity of writing is disappeared. It was a stupid idea to buy the new edition while having the second edition.

Almost every statistical literature I've seen that has any mention of bayesian analysis references this book. This is what brought me into finally purchasing a copy and reading it almost cover to cover.First I want to comment on the bayesian vs frequentist debate, and why one may want to use bayesian methods. Anyone who objects to bayesian paradigm on the basis of subjectivity has to realize that all statistical models are subjective. The decision to use a linear model, logistic regression, or normal distribution for your data, to list a few examples, are subjective decisions. It's no more subjective than putting a prior on your parameters. A prior doesn't have to be very informative, but can encode reasonable range of values for the parameters, such as person's height is between 0 and 10 feet, or that the number of siblings is less than 100, rather than having data completely determine the parameters. When properly incorporated, prior knowledge will help produce more precise parameter estimates.However Bayesian analysis is more than just incorporating prior knowledge into your models. It provides probability distributions on the parameters, instead of asymptotic interval estimates. It provides an automatic way of doing regularization, without a need for cross validation. This allows one to estimate more parameters than classical frequentist models can handle, and even deal with cases when p >= n. Another advantage is relaxing independence and identical distribution assumption, as hierarchical bayesian models automatically build dependence between observations, similar to latent variables in classical statistics.So in my opinion classical statistics already incorporates bayesian ideas through subjective selection of parametric models, practice of regularization such as ridge regression and lasso, and dependence through latent variable models, although it's done in somewhat ad-hoc manner. Bayesian statistics formalizes these notions within probability theory, and together with simulation, allows easy extensions of them in various non-trivial directions.Now about this book. It covers all these advantages of bayesian methods and more, although sometimes requires considerable effort from the reader to uncover and pull out the relevant concepts. It's definitely not meant to be an introduction to statistics. It's assumed the reader is well versed in classical statistics and has a good grasp on topics such as hypothesis testing and interval estimation, sufficient statistics and the exponential family, MLE and it's asymptotic properties, EM algorithm, and generalized linear models, to name a few. Also I think that bayesian methods require a deeper intuition in probability theory and involve more computation and approximation techniques to build even simple models. Considering the background needed it's likely that the reader would have had a considerable prior exposure to bayesian techniques, and I think this is the target audience that the authors had in mind when writing this book.The book is definitely tough on the first reading, especially if this is your first book entirely devoted to this subject. But reading it is well worth the effort. It covers a lot of details and subtleties of bayesian approach that are not well emphasized in books devoted to general statistics and machine learning.The book is of applied nature, written in a way that every applied book should be. There is enough discussion of the theory in order to understand, apply, and extend the described methods. Each chapter is followed by a small section discussing the relevant references if you need to follow the theory in more detail. The authors make a great use of non-trivial examples that show the implementation details and possible complications in the discussed models. In addition, there's an appendix covering computations with R and Stan software.The first five chapters present a solid, if somewhat terse, introduction to general bayesian methods, including asymptotics and connection to MLE, and culminating in hierarchical bayesian models in chapter 5. Two chapters follow on the important topic of model testing and selection. Chapter 8 covers data collection, and while it's a fascinating read and a novel idea if you've never seen it before, I think it could be skipped on the first reading without affecting much the understanding of further chapters.Chapters 10-13 deal with simulation and analytic approximations, two central tools for bayesian analysis, because for most practical models direct analytic expressions are intractable. The authors provide a good overview of the rejection sampling, Gibbs, and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. The explanations are enough for basic implementations. Chapter 13 introduces approximations around posterior modes. There is a very intuitive explanation of the EM algorithm along with it's mathematical derivation. This is followed by variational inference and expectation propagation, approximations which are based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence.Up to this point in the book is a solid overview of bayesian inference, model checking, simulation and approximation techniques. Further chapters are mixed in the level of presentation and content.The second half of the book deals with regression. The chapters here become terser and the language less precise. The level of presentation deteriorates towards the end, where in my opinion the chapters on non-parametric models are almost impossible to understand without some prior exposure. There are more sections that require multiple re-readings and places where I feel reading the references prior to the book is a good idea (such as dirichlet processes). However I do think that the chapters on robust inference and finite mixture models were exceptionally good.I was disappointed that only 2 pages were devoted to regularization and variable selection in linear regression. In my opinion bayesian techniques provide powerful alternatives to classical regularization methods, where instead of choosing the regularization hyperparameters through cross validation, we marginalize over it, thus effectively taking an average over all possible regularizations. Although authors do spend more time on regularization in the context of the basis function selection in chapter 20, I feel it's a pity they didn't choose to devote more space to it in linear regression setting.Some other small negative things about the book in my opinion are: - constantly referring to later chapters in the book - various small typos/mistakes that detract from reading - presentation of expectation propagation in chapter 13 is confusing and no mention is made that it's related to minimizng Kullback-Leibler divergence - no mention of relevance vector machines for basis function selection in chapter 20 - no mention of bayesian dimensionality reduction and factor modelsHowever I think that the excellent presentation in the first half of the book alone makes it well worth studying. It's use as a reference far outweighs it's shortcomings as an introduction, and I'm sure I'll be picking it up countless times when reading other bayesian material. I highly recommend this book for anyone with classical statistics background looking to understand bayesian methods in depth.

Very technical, not good for a beginner in my opinion. I give it 3/5 as a beginner who found it difficult to follow. Probably better suited to an expert?

I will talk about 2 things: how this was shipped and then about the book itself. This book was packed in one of those self seal gold bubble mailers but whoever packed it got the seal on the book itself. I have tried rubbing alcohol and lots of other things to get that seal off to no avail. So I definitely have a complaint on the shipping. As for the book itself, I am very happy it includes sections on nonparametric models. I needed to learn about mixture models and Dirichlet Process Mixtures and this book covers that as well as give lots of examples. Word of warning tho: this book is NOT for beginners. You need to have already gone thru some more basic stats books before reading this one.

Tough read, but rewarding. Gelman dives deep, but if you hang on, you will find some really good insights. I would suggest a solid understand of Bayesian Statistics, and a proclivity reading statistics papers as good background.

Excellent book. Right from the start it explains everything with good examples from authors' research in a very clear and understandable way. Good list of exercises at the end of each chapter (some are easy, some are hard) that really helps anyone using it for self study. Content has some minor overlap with another of Gelman's book, but that was fine with me.The book has a lot of good content and assumes previous knowledge on basic probability and statistics.Definitely recommended as a starter, refresher, self-study guide, textbook or even reference for anyone interested in bayesian modelling.

I have a decent econometrics background but I still found much of the book very difficult to understand. People smarter than I might get more out of it. Nonetheless it does cover a lot of material and can still provide good guidance even if one doesn't fully grasp the underlying theory.

Bayesian Data Analysis is written in a textbook format with problems at the end of each section.Many important concepts are embedded in the problems. An instructor solution manual would be useful for a better understanding of these concepts.

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Monday, November 15, 2010

Ebook Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey

Ebook Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey

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Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey

Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey


Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey


Ebook Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey

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Tales from the Pittsburgh Penguins Locker Room: A Collection of the Greatest Penguins Stories Ever Told (Tales from the Team), by Joe Starkey

About the Author

Joe Starkey is an afternoon radio host on 93.7 The Fan (CBS Radio) in Pittsburgh and a columnist for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. He worked the Penguins beat from 1997 to 2002 and continues to cover the team. He has followed stories ranging from Mario Lemieux’s dramatic comeback to Sidney Crosby’s dramatic arrival to the team’s return to greatness in the 21st century. Starkey grew up in Buffalo, New York, attended graduate school at Duquesne University, and resides in Pittsburgh with his wife, Susan; stepson, Michael; and daughter, Mary Ann.

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Product details

Series: Tales from the Team

Hardcover: 216 pages

Publisher: Sports Publishing; 1 edition (November 6, 2013)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1613214103

ISBN-13: 978-1613214107

Product Dimensions:

5.5 x 1 x 8.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 11.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.6 out of 5 stars

29 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,034,062 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This was a birthday gift for my wife who is a huge Pittsburgh Penguins fan. Shortly after she began reading this book, she started sharing some of the anecdotes with me. After an hour immersed in the book, she marked her spot and offered to let me read it. What a great book! Ever wonder why they are called the Penguins? The humorous explanation is given here. The day that Mario Lemieux brought the team out of bankruptcy is recounted, as well as the day he announced he was returning as a player ("This changes everything" being the general sentiment after the announcement). Coach Herb Brooks taking on a Colorado television commentator for a verbal cheap shot on one of his players, the (at the time) third longest game in league history and, just a few years later, another marathon overtime game...these stories and so many others are told in this lively book. Highly recommended for Penguins fans or, for that matter, fans of the game.

So glad to finally have this book back in stock on Amazon! This is quite the collection... more than 200 pages of Pens history in one collection. Perfect for every fan, from the know-it-all to a team novice, the book features stories that give you great insight into the Penguins bench... past and present. The author is a local Pittsburgh sports writer who has logged countless hours following the team and reporting from the locker room. This kind of rare access resulted in a book only someone who has spent time on the "inside" could deliver.

Every serious Pens fan should have this book. It’s loaded with short facts and one paragraph stories... great for guys like me with a short attention span. Starkey did a great job on this.

My husband bought this book for himself. He is all about the penguins and usually does not read many books but this sparked his interest. He wo ukd air every night reading this. I asked him to review out of 5 stars and he sais 5 stars!

Birthday gift for a pens fan. He started reading it right away! The book consists of short stories so it's very easy to read. I'm happy with my purchase.

Item arrived on time and was exactly as described and appeared in photo. Thanks!

Terrific book

Wonderful book!

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Friday, November 12, 2010

Free Download The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

Free Download The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

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The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe


The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe


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The Pope and Mussolini: The Secret History of Pius XI and the Rise of Fascism in Europe

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 14 hours and 10 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Random House Audio

Audible.com Release Date: January 28, 2014

Whispersync for Voice: Ready

Language: English, English

ASIN: B00I11P2U8

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

Fantastic History that describes one of the darkest chapters in not only the Vatican's history, but Europe's History as well. Mr. Kertzer combs through many pages of archives in the Vatican to retell the story of how the Pope sold out many Europeans, including the Jews in Europe for some semblance of stability in Fascist Italy, which was never fully calm until the Church kowtowed to Mussolini. Great job casting all the characters involved and helps explain what their objectives were in the period from the 1920's to the beginning of the world war. This is a great history that is very captivating and almost seems like a drama show that seems too good to be true. A very rich and detailed account of not only the men of the Vatican involved, but of the time period that it took place in. A worthy read, and a great book to begin with if you want to find out more about how the church sold their soul's to the devil to defend an institution in lieu of 11 million Europeans being massacred, 6 million of them Jews. A heartbreaking read, but a necessary one.

This is a well documented revisionist (here meant in a positive sense) history of the relationship between Italian fascism and the Catholic Church, personified in two men with autocratic instincts: Benito Mussolini and Pius XI. Pius is remembered as the author of the “Mit brennenger sorge” encyclical, condemning Nazi antisemitism, and has been perceived as more forceful in his condemnation of fascism than his successor, the suave, unctuously diplomatic Pius XII. This book reveals that while Pius XI might have been a pope who loathed antisemitism in its racial, Germanic variant, he did not do enough to prevent his entourage from pushing forward an antisemite agenda in Italy, more along the lines of “classic” ecclesial antisemitism, in exchange for the restoration of Church privileges, taken away by the Risorgimento and the Unification of Italy in the 1870s. It is an entertaining read with the right amount of truculence (although some minutiae about Mussolini’s sex life could have been mercifully edited); unfortunately, the book stops short of relating Pius XII’s pontificate and its controversial stance in the face of the Holocaust, which surely could be material for another book. Thoroughly enjoyable.

Very interesting book, at least for a non-historian. I felt like I knew Pious XI and Mussolini much better than I did before. There are a lot of details that reveal their personalities and contradictions. My book group also noted similarities with the 2016 presidential primary season. We are really looking forward to reading about WWII and Pious XII when Kertzer is allowed access to those Vatican records.

Having grown up in Rome, with parents and grandparents who had lived during the Mussolini years, from the “March on Rome” to the end of WWII; having heard their many stories about “Il Duce“; and having watched various Italian movies about the war years; I was very interested in reading this recently published (2014) book.Like most of the better educated Italians and, by the end by the war, like the vast majority of the Italian population, no one in my family appreciated Mussolini’s dictatorship, or his fascist ideas. Consequently, the stories that they told were not entirely objective or flattering towards “Il Duce“. I purchased the book for an unbiased description of the Mussolini character and of the times of his dictatorship.I decided to write the review: perhaps the readers will appreciate the point of view of someone like myself who “almost” (that means through her closest older relatives) experienced the Mussolini times directly.So let us start from the beginning.First of all - before seeing the actual book, and based on the number of reviews by Amazon.com customers (209, as this review is being published) - I was pleasantly surprised to discover so much interest on the part of the American people in two individuals - the pope and Mussolini - who lived (1) during a period of history when most of us were not born, and (2) in a country located so far from the United States.The Pope and Mussolini is about 550 pages long, of which 400 or so are dedicated to the actual narrative. The rest includes review excerpts from newspapers and magazines, maps of Rome and the Vatican and the “Cast of Characters” (prior to the narrative); some extensive notes, the bibliography and the index (following the narrative). There are many black and white photographs throughout, which enhance the narrative: it is always interesting to see the pictures of the individuals about whose lives and actions we are learning.The book is very well written and very informative. It may at times provide more information than necessary, but Mr. Kertzer is such a good narrator that I just could not stop reading until I came to the very end.Good is the idea of including a separate “Cast of Characters” - that is short biographies of the two title characters, as well as of Mussolini’s associates, and of members of the Church and the many other individuals mentioned in the narrative. These save the tedious effort of having to search through the 400 plus pages of the book, should one need to clarify the information about any such characters, for example, the date and place of birth.The major emphasis is on the exchanges between (1) Mussolini and his closest associates and (2) the Pope and the rest of the Vatican; in other words, between a dictator with a humongous ego and the most powerful being on earth - the representative of God himself, the being who, through excommunication, can condemn the soul rather than the body, thus punishing the unfortunate individual till the end of time, not just the end of his/her life.Most of the readers will be surprised how extensive and influential those exchanges were. Although, like most Romans, I was aware of the intrigues going on at the Vatican, I did not realize how involved Mussolini had been with the Church.I was not entirely happy with the character description of Mussolini which, at least based on the feelings of many of his compatriots, seems far too positive: the man comes through as a reasonably well balanced individual. Even though self centered, he is still within the limits of normality. Mussolini was not within those limits. He was out of touch with reality and expected too much from his fellow citizens, for example, when trying to turn them into a population of heroes. Heroes are born not made, and rare in any population.I do not agree with Mr. Kertzer, when he suggests that the Italians were “weak“, because they did not respond to Mussolini’s demands with the same enthusiasm as the Germans responded to Hitler‘s. Well, he does not actually state that they were weak, he indicates that this is what Mussolini believed. The Italians are not weak, in fact they were never afraid nor hesitated to fight for the right cause, for example, the country’s independence during the 19th century. But they did not believe in Mussolini. They recognized the unrealistic nature of his goals and did not try to accomplish those goals. What better proof for such conclusions than Italy’s (not Mussolini’s) decision to change sides (as decided by Mussolini) half way through the war - criticized by other nations, possibly justly so.Unfortunately, when a dictator is in charge, the population has little opportunity to decide whether or not to go along with his decisions.The final outcome - when both Hitler and Mussolini lost the war and died indecorous deaths (Mussolini certainly did) - confirms those conclusions. The support that the Germans gave to Hitler did not help him in the outcome of the war any more than the lack of support hindered Mussolini.The description of the events immediately before, during and after Mussolini’s death, is probably short, when compared with he descriptions of other events. It leaves out many details which are important for a full understanding of Mussolini‘s personality and character: those events expose the man in his true image, not the image that he had tried to project: a man with the leadership qualities of Julius Cesar and Napoleon combined. It is unfortunate that Colonnello Valerio (Walter Audisio), and the other partisans likely responsible for Mussolini’s capture, execution and transportation to Piazzale Loreto, are hardly mentioned at all, not during the narrative, not in the “Cast of Characters“. They deserve the proper credit for putting an end to a dictatorship that should never have happened.Many photographs were taken of the dead bodies of Mussolini and of other prominent fascist leaders, as displayed at Piazzale Loreto in Milan. The addition of at least one or two such photographs would have made the description of the conclusion of Mussolini’s life - when he reaped the results of the seeds that he had sowed during the previous twenty some years - more complete.I agree with Mr. Kertzer regarding the lack of popularity of Pius XI. Although there was abundant published controversy about Pius XII during the 1960‘s and 70‘s, I never ever heard anything being said - good or bad - about this pope.All in all - except for the very end - The Pope and Mussolini is a very good book, easy to read, informative and very well written. I learned a great deal from it…… , but I did not change my mind, definitely not my feelings, towards “Il Duce”.

Tremendous scholarship in digging into many of the misunderstood (at least by me) elements of the Pope/Mussolini relationship. In the early years--until the late 1930s when Hitler dominated Mussolini--the two worked together more than they didn't. Both gave each other things they desperately needed--Mussolini sought legitimacy for his imperial goals, and Pius wanted Catholicism to have control of schools and to be reinstated as the official religion of Italy. Post-War, the Church has stated that Pius was an ameliorating force on Il Duce, but while that may have been his inclination, Kertzer argues that in aggregate, he enabled far more than he retarded Mussolini's reign. The book also does a nice--albeit sometimes confusing--job of describing the various factions within the Church and the papal conclaves.

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Friday, November 5, 2010

PDF Download World of Eric Carle, Firefly, Light Up the Sky - Little Flashlight Pop-Up Adventure Book - Play-a-Sound - PI Kids

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World of Eric Carle, Firefly, Light Up the Sky - Little Flashlight Pop-Up Adventure Book - Play-a-Sound - PI Kids

Product details

Age Range: 1 - 3 years

Hardcover: 16 pages

Publisher: Phoenix International Publications, Inc. (July 29, 2015)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1450897797

ISBN-13: 978-1450897792

Package Dimensions:

8.4 x 6.5 x 2.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

5.0 out of 5 stars

4 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#32,227 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

My 2 year old son loves this! He’s a big bookworm who also loves buttons & lights so this was right up his alley! The story is easy for him to follow along as well. Would make a great birthday or Christmas gift!

My 3 year old loves this book, especially the flashlight!

My two-year-old son loves this book especially the flashlight that makes sounds!

Fun book with flashlight.

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